Week 14: Broncos vs. Bills

Denver Broncos

Looks like we found a kicker who can actually make a 33 yard field goal.  Connor Barth was a breath of fresh air for those of us who were sick of seeing Brandon McManus miss easy field goal.  Now we have a kicker who can make the easy ones.  The only concern that I had was that his kickoffs were landing at about the five yard line on every kickoff and the Chiefs had great field position throughout the game (although they did nothing with it).  The Broncos took care of this problem by re-signing McManus so he can be the kickoff specialist.  I loved this move because kicking off is actually something that McManus did very well.  He has the fourth best touchback percentage in the NFL (75%).  I also loved this move because it came at the expense of Isiah Burse.  Nothing against Burse but he just wasn't getting the job done in the kick return game, and I was glad to see that the Broncos realized that.  He just tried to hard to make the big play every time instead of getting the yards that were there.  There were several times last week where if he had just taken what the coverage gave him he would have had ten to fifteen yards, but instead he tried to get cute and break a big one and wound up getting a couple yards.  He had the worst average punt return in the NFL, so I was glad to see that the Broncos decided to go in a different direction.  I think the Broncos may look to use Wes Welker as the punt returner now.  They had been reluctant to do so but given his reduced role in the offense they may be more willing to risk using him as  punt returner.  Omar Bolden is another player who could see some time as the punt returner.  He has done a good job returning kickoffs over the past two weeks and I wouldn't be surprised if he saw some action as the punt returner.

Denver Broncos

This week the Broncos have to continue to run the football, and it will be a tough task against a very stout Bills defense.  This week it is important to run the ball to slow down the Bills pass rushers.  They lead the league in sacks, and have three players with double digit sacks. The Bills like to get after the quarterback and force him into mistakes.  If there is one weakness to Peyton Manning's game it is that he does not do well under pressure.  The Broncos need to get C.J. Anderson rolling early to make the Bills pass rushers respect the running game.  If they fail to do so the Bills pass rushers will come after Peyton Manning and cause problems for the Broncos offense.  I have loved seeing the Broncos be so committed to the running game over the last several weeks.  If they can keep producing  like they have been this offense will be one of the most dangerous in the NFL.  One concern that I have had in regards to the running game, is the heavy usage that C.J. Anderson has seen over the last several weeks.  The Broncos need to manage his carries more so he is fresh for the postseason.  Look for the Broncos to get Juwan Thompson more carries in this one to make sure Anderson is staying fresh.  I would also expect Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman to get a few carries whenever they come back from injury in the next several weeks, but make no mistake C.J. Anderson is the starter at running back no matter who comes back from injury.

Denver Broncos

In the passing game expect big things from Demaryius Thomas once again.  He has been having a monster season and I think he will continue to have success in this one.  If the Broncos offensive line is able to give Peyton the time he needs look for the Broncos to do a lot of damage through the air.  The weakness of this Bills defense is their secondary, which is hidden because of how great the defensive line is.  Peyton Manning's ability to get rid of the ball quickly should be a big advantage in this game and I expect the Broncos to have a big game through the air.  For some reason this offense is different when they are playing at home.  In six home game the Broncos are averaging just over 35 points per game, as opposed to road game where they are averaging only 24.8 points per game.  Look for the Broncos to get rolling early and score a lot of points in this one.

Denver Broncos

Another good sign from last week was the play of the Denver defense.  They absolutely dominated the Chiefs, and they shut down Jamal Charles which is no easy task.  The biggest change I saw last week was the Broncos willingness to blitz in big moments.  For most of the season the Broncos have been very reluctant to blitz, and have had one of the lowest blitz percentage in the NFL.  Last week that all changed as the Broncos blitzed early and often and they had no problem getting to Alex Smith.  They recorded six sacks in this one and a good number of them were off of a blitz.  One player that I loved blitzing last week was T.J. Ward.  He showed the ability to get to the quarterback and he did a great job of disguising his blitz.  He is a player that I expect to see blitzing more this week as well because that is where he can be really dangerous.  Ward is not a guy that is great in coverage, but he is really good at stuffing the run and getting after the quarterback.

Denver Broncos

Another Bronco that has been really impressive over the past several weeks is Mitch Unrein.  You just can't say enough about a guy who was a huge part of the rotation last year, and this year has been inactive for a good part of the season, and when he got his chance he seized it.  He has been causing havoc in the backfield over the last few weeks since he has been active.  When you watch him he is getting off of blocks and making plays in the backfield.  It has been good to see him take advantage of his playing time and I would expect him to be active the rest of the way.  He is just another playmaker for this very talented defensive line that should continue to cause problems for opponents as the season rolls along.  I expect the defensive line to have another great game shutting down the Bills running game and then getting after our old buddy Kyle Orton.

Prediction

I think this game is going to be close for a couple of quarters because the Bills defense is talented enough to slow down the Broncos offense.  Once the Broncos offense hits a rhythm I think they will begin to pull away from the Bills who have struggled offensively this season.  I expect the Broncos defense to continue their dominance from last week.  It would be nice if this defense could put together several great performances in a row and be clicking on all cylinders entering the playoffs.

Final Score- Denver Broncos 34, Buffalo Bills 16

Week 13: Broncos vs. Chiefs

The Broncos finally found a running game! For the first time this season the Broncos were able to run the ball and not just when the defense allowed them to do so.  They ran the ball against the Dolphins when they knew the Broncos were going to run the football.  That is the biggest difference that you could see in this game.  When the Broncos went for it on 4th and 2 and popped one off for twenty yards, it was a good sign for the Broncos running game.  C.J. Anderson will get most of the credit for the improvement of the running game and deservedly so, he played great and will be the starter for the rest of the season, but enough cannot be said about the offensive line.  They have been attacked all season as the Broncos weakest link, and last week they responded with their best performance of the season.  You could see that they were physically controlling the Dolphins in the running game and the passing game.  If the line is able to maintain their level of play the Broncos offense will be one of the most dangerous and balanced offenses in the league.  Thats the good news.  The bad news is that the Broncos defense struggled to do much of anything in this one and they were consistently beaten by the Dolphins.  One of the most concerning things that I saw was the lack of a consistent pass rush.  Teams are often chipping Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware with a running back or tight end, and making it harder for those two to get to the quarterback.  The Broncos have to be able to generate pass rush in other ways, whether that is blitzing or finding another player who can consistently create pressure.  Keep a close eye on the defense this week to see how they handle the Chiefs in the passing game.

Denver Broncos

Speaking of C.J. Anderson has he been impressive or what?  The Broncos coaching staff finally gave him his shot and he has not disappointed.  He has been great both running the ball and catching the ball.  If the Broncos want to continue to be successful on offense they need to feed Anderson the ball early and often.  Running the ball also had a profound effect on the offensive line.  When the Broncos run the ball it keeps the offensive line aggressive and that is part of the reason that they looked so good last week.  The Broncos also need to stay committed to the running game this week because the Chiefs have one of the worst running games in the NFL.  They are currently ranked 26th in the NFL and they have struggled even more over the last several weeks.  The Raiders managed to run all over the Chiefs last week and I would expect the Broncos to look to do the same.  Another reason I loved the way the Broncos ran the ball is that it set up the pass so perfectly.  For the first time this season the Broncos opponent didn't know if they were going to run the ball or pass the ball.  That meant that Peyton Manning was not under constant pressure when he dropped back to pass, and Peyton looked far more comfortable in the pocket against the Dolphins.  This will be important this week as well as the Broncos face off against a Chiefs pass rush that is very formidable.  Slowing down Tamba Hali and Justin Houston just a little bit could mean the difference between a win and a loss.

Denver Broncos

I am also looking for Demaryius Thomas to continue his torrid pace in this game.  He has been unbelievable this season after a bit of a slow start.  I know he did not reach 100 yards last week but he scored three touchdowns and had ten receptions so I would say he had a pretty good game all in all.  His role will become even bigger if Julius Thomas is unable to go again this week, which is looking more and more likely.  He did not practice again this week and that is usually not a good sign for a players availability on game day.  One player that could benefit from the absence of Julius is Wes Welker who finally got a second touchdown pass last week.  The chiefs will look hard to take away Demaryius and Emmanuel Sanders which means Welker will have plenty of opportunities in this one if he can get open.  Last week he was great on third down and in short yardage situations which is how I would expect the Broncos to use him going forward.  He is not the player that he once was but he can still be a valuable contributor for this Broncos team.

Denver Broncos

One player I would like to see more of this week is Omar Bolden.  Last week he took over kick returning duties and he did a much better job than Andre Caldwell has done at any point this season.  I expect him to keep that job and as long as he continues to perform he could look to take over the punt returner job.  This is something that has been a problem all season.  Isaiah Burse is simply not that special and to be honest I don't know how he managed to secure a roster spot on this team.  Had Jordan Norwood not been injured in the preseason there is not way that Burse is on this team.  Last season we had Trindon Holliday returning punts and he had fumbling issues, but at least he provided the chance for a big play in the return game.  This year Burse has had no big returns and he has had fumbling issues as well, fumbling three times (has only lost one).  The Broncos need to find somebody who can provide decent returns and hold onto the football so Peyton Manning and the offense can at least have a chance.  The special teams have been an issue all season but hopefully things will improve now that Brandon McManus is finally gone.  How he managed to hang around this long is anybody's guess, but I suppose the 33 yard field goal miss was the straw that broke the camels back.  It will be interesting to see how Connor Barth does as the new kicker.  My only concern with him is that he did not play last year so he could be rusty but he must have impressed the Broncos in workouts as he beat out an experienced kicker in Jay Feeley.  Keep an eye on special teams this week as they just need to avoid costly mistakes, which have plagued the special teams unit all season long.

Denver Broncos

If the Broncos hope to win this game they are going to need to see some major improvements from the defense.  They struggled to stop the Dolphins last week, although I will say they made some good halftime adjustments and got big stops when they needed to in the 2nd half.  The dolphins were able to exploit the Broncos run defense, which most teams have not been able to do.  They ran a lot of zone read run in the first half and the Broncos defensive ends were getting sucked to far in and the edge was sealed, which allowed Lamar Miller to break free around the edge.  This week it is very important that they keep Jamal Charles contained, because if he breaks contain you are in for a long day.  He is one of the most dangerous runners once he hits the open field, so the Broncos have to do the best they can to force him to run in between the tackles.  Another key when facing Charles is tackling him as a unit.  He is great at making people miss, so the Broncos have to swarm the football, and gang tackle him so he is unable to use his trademark elusiveness.  I expect the Broncos defense to rebound in this game, but if they do not and they continue to struggle this will be a major concern going forward.

Prediction

This will be a hard fought game and I think the Broncos are going to struggle in this one.  The Chiefs will be playing at home during primetime with some of the loudest fans in the NFL.  I think if the Broncos struggle early they could be in for a very tough night.  They need to come out and score a few touchdowns early to take the crowd out of the game and force the Chiefs to throw the ball.  I think the Broncos should be able to win this game if they execute and avoid turnovers.  Look for a close ball game that will most likely not be decided until the fourth quarter.

Final Score- Denver Broncos 27, Kansas City Chiefs 21

Week 10: Broncos vs. Raiders

Yikes! Last week did not go as expected for the Broncos, and raised some serious concerns about this Denver Broncos team.  Everyone expected the game to be tough playing at New England but the Broncos were dominated in every single phase of the game.  However, we all need to take a page from Aaron Rodgers book and R-E-L-A-X.  The NFL season is long and there are sure to be moments of disappointment as the season rolls along.  In fact it was just a month or so ago that New England got dismantled by the Kansas City Chiefs and everyone was saying that the Patriots dynasty was done, and Tom Brady was washed up.  A few weeks later and they are suddenly the Super Bowl favorites.  So Broncos fans don't panic after a big loss on the road to a tough opponent.

Denver Broncos

There were some real concerns that surfaced during the Patriots game.  Peyton Manning would have you believe that he stunk, and was the reason for the loss.  However, had Wes Welker caught the pass that became a Brandon Browner interception Peyton had a day that should be good enough to beat anybody.  He made one big mistake in the game, and even Peyton Manning makes mistakes.  To me the real problem that is surfacing with the Broncos is the play of their special teams.  This was a huge factor in the lose to the Patriots.  The punt return for a touchdown was a huge play for the Patriots, and it turned all of the momentum in their favor.  The Broncos never really got back into the game following the return.  The Broncos have actually been pretty solid on kick coverage this season and that was the first return touchdown they have allowed this season.  The biggest area of concern for me is in the kicking game.  Brandon McManus has not demonstrated the ability to make kicks that an NFL kicker has to be able to make.  Most would point to his missed field goal in this game, but I think the most telling play was when the Broncos went for it on 4th down from the Patriots 34 yard line.  Granted, that is a 51 yard field goal but with Matt Prater there would have been no hesitation to kick the field goal at that point in the game.  Peyton Manning was sacked on 4th down and the Patriots quickly drove down the field and scored a touchdown.  If the kicking game does not improve the Broncos may have to explore other options at kicker.  Overall, I felt the Broncos offense actually looked pretty good and they moved the ball well, but they struggled to make big plays in big moments and they also had a couple of critical turnovers.  If the Broncos can clean up the mistakes and convert in big moments they will be just fine going forward.

Denver Broncos

Enough of the struggles of last week, it is time to move past the loss and look at this weeks game against the Oakland Raiders.  Most are expecting this game to be a laugher.  I think the Broncos will win this one but I do think that people are taking the Raiders too lightly.  They are not a very good team but they have shown more fight this season than in seasons past.  They are still winless but they have competed in almost every single game, and they have come close to upsetting some quality teams.  They actually played the New England Patriots very close and almost won that game.  They have also had close games against the San Diego Chargers and the Seattle Seahawks.  It will be important for the Broncos to take the Raiders seriously, and come out ready to play.  I rarely worry about this team coming out flat, as they have Peyton Manning at quarterback.  Speaking of number 18 expect him to have a big game in this one.  He has always played well against the Raiders and that trend should continue this week.  The Raiders defense will be overmatched in this one, and that is going to be obvious in the defensive secondary.  The Raiders do not have the personnel to match up with all of the Broncos weapons.  The Broncos wideouts have been on fire lately and Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders should both have big games again this week.  So far this year they have been the best receiving duo in the NFL bar none.  I would also look for Julius Thomas and Wes Welker to get back on track this week.  People are bailing on Wes Welker way too quickly.  I think that he will still play a very important role for the Broncos this season.  Even if he is just getting a couple catches a game, if those catches are for third down conversions he will be doing his job.  Look for Wes and Julius to get going soon, as the two receivers on the outside will begin to receive extra attention.

Denver Broncos

Another key in this game will be the Broncos running game. Last week the running game struggled to get much of anything going.  This team has to be able to run the ball against 6 man fronts, and last week they were not able to do so.  This week the Broncos will look to re-shuffle their offensive line once again.  With Paul Cornick down with an injury, I expect Orlando Franklin to slide back out to right tackle.  Manny Ramirez should then move from center to left guard, and Will Montgomery will make his first start as a Bronco at center.  It should be very interesting to see how this re-vamped offensive line performs in this one.  So far this season the Broncos have struggled to stop pressure that comes in between the center and either one of the two guards.  It will be worth watching the middle of this line to see if they can fix the problems that have plagued them so far.  If they can create a few holes for Ronnie Hillman I would look for him to get back on track this week.  Last week he struggled running the ball, but he was still able to make a big impact on the game by being a receiver out of the backfield.  As the season moves along I would look for Hillman to continue to be a big part of the passing game.  With his explosive running ability he is a big threat once he has the ball in his hands, and I expect for the Broncos to continue to try to get Hillman the ball in space.

Denver Broncos

Defensively look for the Broncos to get back to being a dominant defensive unit.  Last week they only had one sack but they did generate good pressure most of the game, but Tom Brady got rid of the ball so quickly they were not able to get to him.  One player that I was very impressed with last weekend, and the last several weeks is Malik Jackson.  He has been a guy that has been getting consistent penetration.  Players like Jackson making plays will be very important to the Broncos going forward.  If the Broncos can get enough plays from Jackson and Derek Wolfe in the pass rush they will be able to put constant pressure on opposing quarterbacks.  That will be very important today against a rookie quarterback.  Derek Carr has actually played pretty well this season and has a only been sacked 8 times this year, which is tied for the least in the league (with Peyton Manning).  If the Broncos can find a way to get pressure on this young quarterback they can force him to make mistakes and get some big time turnovers.  If the defense can shut down the run once again look for the pass rushers to make some big plays and cause turnovers.

Denver Broncos

Reports surfaced this week that the Broncos have started contract negotiations with free agent to be Chris Harris.  This is great news for Broncos fans.  Harris does not get the respect around the league that he deserves as he has been one of the best cornerbacks in the league over the last several seasons.  The biggest reason for his greatness is his versatility.  Harris has the ability to play at any corner spot on the field.  He is one of the best corners on the outside, and he is easily the best slot corner in the game once he moves inside to cover the slot receiver.  Locking Harris up long term will ensure the Broncos have one of the best defensive backfields in the NFL for years to come.  Hopefully they can lock him up soon and begin contract negotiations with players like Terrance "Pot Roast" Knighton and Demaryius Thomas.  As I was saying earlier I think the defense will force a couple of turnovers today and I would look for Harris to make a big play today.

Prediction

While I do think the Raiders are better than they are given credit for, they are still no match for a much more talented Denver Broncos team.  I would look for the Broncos to get back on track today in all three phases of the game.  One thing that bears watching today is the ability of Brandon McManus to make tough kicks.  If he misses another field goal or two I would not be surprised if the Broncos brought in another kicker to compete for the starting job.  I expect the Broncos to win this one, and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some more of Brock Osweiler today.

Final Score- Denver Broncos 38, Oakland Raiders 17

Manning vs. Brady 16

Another week in the NFL and another huge game for the Denver Broncos.  It seems like every game so far has been a "must win" for the Broncos and this week they face another tough test against the New England Patriots.  The Patriots have been on a roll lately, scoring 51 points last weekend against the Chicago Bears.  This game is so important for the Broncos because if they are able to win this game they will be in control of the AFC's #1 seed.  If they lose things will become a little more difficult for them although not impossible.  As always this game takes on added significance because of the quarterback matchup.  Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are two of the greatest quarterbacks of all time so anytime they face off against one another, it is a media spectacle.  This game also marks the third consecutive year that this matchup has taken place, all of which have been played in Foxborough.  The Broncos have not fared too well the last two seasons, but this year could be different and I'll tell you why.

Keys to Victory

Denver Broncos- Gabriel Christus

The biggest key in this game has to be the turnover battle.  The Broncos have to avoid beating themselves in this game.  In the last two regular season meetings against the Patriots the Broncos have been careless with the ball and it has cost them the game.  We all remember last years game where the Broncos managed to squander a 24-0 lead because of two turnovers deep in their own territory.  That is how the Patriots beat you.  They play good disciplined football and when you make a mistake they are sure to capitalize on it.  In this one the Broncos need to make sure that they are not helping the Patriots out with turnovers.  If Denver can win the turnover battle I think they will win this game, if they cannot then it could be a different story.

Denver Broncos- Gabriel Christus

One player that could play a big role today for the Broncos is Emmanuel Sanders.  If the weather is going to be as bad as they say then the Broncos may not be able to push the ball down the field in the passing game.  This could mean that the Broncos run a lot of underneath routes, and bubble screens that give their playmakers the ability to run after the catch.  Sanders is one of the most dynamic pass catchers that the Broncos have and he is always fun to watch when he has the ball in his hands.  In the last several games the Broncos have run a downfield screen that has been very effective.  They ran this play twice last week on third and long situations and I think they could look to run this play on a more consistent basis if the weather is bad.  On this play the Broncos set three receivers in a trips formation to the right with one receiver (Demaryius Thomas) set to the left.  The three receivers on the right side of the formation come flying off the line of scrimmage which forces the defenders to back off quickly.  The receiver on the left of the formation then runs a shallow crossing route, once the ball is thrown the three receivers who are downfield find a man and block.  So far this has been an effective play for the Broncos and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Broncos try it a few times.

Denver Broncos- Gabriel Christus

Assuming the weather is as bad as predicted the Broncos will have to rely on the running game, and given recent performance that might not be such a bad thing.  Ronnie Hillman has been a fresh breath of air for the Broncos running game.  He has transformed the running attack from an area of concern to a real strength of this team.  Since taking over as the starter Hillman has consistently shown the ability to hit a hole and get as many yards as he can.  He has also shown great quickness.  His ability to break big plays has shown up in each game so far and I would not be surprised to see him bust loose for a big play again this week.  The last two weeks he has had runs of over thirty yards, and I think that trend will continue this week.  The fun thing about Hillman is that once he gets past the second level he has the ability to run away from everybody.  Last year against the Patriots the Broncos ran for 280 yards and seemingly had their way with the Patriots defense.  I think that this trend will continue against a Patriots defense that is missing it's leading tackler as well as its best pass rusher.

Denver Broncos- Gabriel Christus

As for the Broncos defense they will have their hands full against a Patriots offense that is firing on all cylinders at this point in the season.  At the start of this season the Patriots looked out of sync and there were some who said that this was the end of the Patriots dynasty and that Tom Brady was done.  Well a few weeks later and those ideas have been solidly laid to rest as the Patriots have been on fire over the last several weeks.  What changed? One word: Gronk.  The biggest difference for this Patriots offense has been the play of the tight end known only as GRONK.  Over the first four games Gronk just did not look like the same dominant player that we are so used to seeing.  He ran mostly crossing routes and did not challenge the defense vertically.  Things have changed over the last few weeks though and it appears Gronk is healthy and back to terrorizing opponents.  He has been running down the seams and dishing out punishment when he makes contact with a defender.  So how do the Broncos slow down this Patriots offense?  I think that if the Broncos are able to stop the running game and make the Patriots one dimensional Tom Brady could be in for a long day in this one.  The Broncos are the #1 run defense so far this season and if they can continue to stop the run they can make life tough for the Patriots today.  If the Broncos can stuff the run that means the pass rushers can pin their ears back and get after Tom Brady.  This is important because the Patriots offensive line has been suspect at times this season and going against Von Miller and Demarcus Ware is no small task.

Denver Broncos- Gabriel Christus

These two pass rushers have been terrorizing opponents all season long, and they show no signs of slowing down.  Von Miller in particular has been practically unstoppable and he now has a sack in six consecutive games which is the best current streak in the NFL.  Von Miller is a great pass rusher there is no doubt about that, but one thing that often goes overlooked with Von is just how dominant he is against the running game.  If you watch him on running plays he regularly gets into the backfield and at the very least forces the play to go the opposite direction of him.  If the Broncos pass rush can get to Brady quickly they should have the ability to either bring him down for a sack or force him to throw it before he is ready.  This should provide the defense with opportunities for takeaways and I would look for the Broncos to get at least one interception in this one.  Rahim Moore has looked great so far this season and he seems to be seeing the field really well.   I was particularly impressed with his interception last week against the Chargers.  On the play Moore had deep responsibility and as he saw Malcom Floyd head down the sideline he immediately drifted that way and made a great play on the ball to pick off Phillip Rivers.  This shows just how far he has grown as a player.  We all remember the play against Baltimore where Moore failed to make the play on the ball.  I think he has really developed as a safety and he is a major cog in one of the best secondaries in football.

Prediction

This one is hard to predict because of the weather.  If it is cold and windy that takes away the Broncos ability to throw the ball downfield and forces them to dink and dunk a lot more.  However, even if the weather is bad I still think the Broncos have the better team.  The Broncos have superior talent and as long as they do not make mistakes with the football they should take care of business.  I look for Peyton Manning to get his first regular season win in Foxborough as a Bronco in this one.

Final Score- Denver Broncos 24, New England Patriots 17