Week 14: Broncos vs. Bills

Denver Broncos

Looks like we found a kicker who can actually make a 33 yard field goal.  Connor Barth was a breath of fresh air for those of us who were sick of seeing Brandon McManus miss easy field goal.  Now we have a kicker who can make the easy ones.  The only concern that I had was that his kickoffs were landing at about the five yard line on every kickoff and the Chiefs had great field position throughout the game (although they did nothing with it).  The Broncos took care of this problem by re-signing McManus so he can be the kickoff specialist.  I loved this move because kicking off is actually something that McManus did very well.  He has the fourth best touchback percentage in the NFL (75%).  I also loved this move because it came at the expense of Isiah Burse.  Nothing against Burse but he just wasn't getting the job done in the kick return game, and I was glad to see that the Broncos realized that.  He just tried to hard to make the big play every time instead of getting the yards that were there.  There were several times last week where if he had just taken what the coverage gave him he would have had ten to fifteen yards, but instead he tried to get cute and break a big one and wound up getting a couple yards.  He had the worst average punt return in the NFL, so I was glad to see that the Broncos decided to go in a different direction.  I think the Broncos may look to use Wes Welker as the punt returner now.  They had been reluctant to do so but given his reduced role in the offense they may be more willing to risk using him as  punt returner.  Omar Bolden is another player who could see some time as the punt returner.  He has done a good job returning kickoffs over the past two weeks and I wouldn't be surprised if he saw some action as the punt returner.

Denver Broncos

This week the Broncos have to continue to run the football, and it will be a tough task against a very stout Bills defense.  This week it is important to run the ball to slow down the Bills pass rushers.  They lead the league in sacks, and have three players with double digit sacks. The Bills like to get after the quarterback and force him into mistakes.  If there is one weakness to Peyton Manning's game it is that he does not do well under pressure.  The Broncos need to get C.J. Anderson rolling early to make the Bills pass rushers respect the running game.  If they fail to do so the Bills pass rushers will come after Peyton Manning and cause problems for the Broncos offense.  I have loved seeing the Broncos be so committed to the running game over the last several weeks.  If they can keep producing  like they have been this offense will be one of the most dangerous in the NFL.  One concern that I have had in regards to the running game, is the heavy usage that C.J. Anderson has seen over the last several weeks.  The Broncos need to manage his carries more so he is fresh for the postseason.  Look for the Broncos to get Juwan Thompson more carries in this one to make sure Anderson is staying fresh.  I would also expect Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman to get a few carries whenever they come back from injury in the next several weeks, but make no mistake C.J. Anderson is the starter at running back no matter who comes back from injury.

Denver Broncos

In the passing game expect big things from Demaryius Thomas once again.  He has been having a monster season and I think he will continue to have success in this one.  If the Broncos offensive line is able to give Peyton the time he needs look for the Broncos to do a lot of damage through the air.  The weakness of this Bills defense is their secondary, which is hidden because of how great the defensive line is.  Peyton Manning's ability to get rid of the ball quickly should be a big advantage in this game and I expect the Broncos to have a big game through the air.  For some reason this offense is different when they are playing at home.  In six home game the Broncos are averaging just over 35 points per game, as opposed to road game where they are averaging only 24.8 points per game.  Look for the Broncos to get rolling early and score a lot of points in this one.

Denver Broncos

Another good sign from last week was the play of the Denver defense.  They absolutely dominated the Chiefs, and they shut down Jamal Charles which is no easy task.  The biggest change I saw last week was the Broncos willingness to blitz in big moments.  For most of the season the Broncos have been very reluctant to blitz, and have had one of the lowest blitz percentage in the NFL.  Last week that all changed as the Broncos blitzed early and often and they had no problem getting to Alex Smith.  They recorded six sacks in this one and a good number of them were off of a blitz.  One player that I loved blitzing last week was T.J. Ward.  He showed the ability to get to the quarterback and he did a great job of disguising his blitz.  He is a player that I expect to see blitzing more this week as well because that is where he can be really dangerous.  Ward is not a guy that is great in coverage, but he is really good at stuffing the run and getting after the quarterback.

Denver Broncos

Another Bronco that has been really impressive over the past several weeks is Mitch Unrein.  You just can't say enough about a guy who was a huge part of the rotation last year, and this year has been inactive for a good part of the season, and when he got his chance he seized it.  He has been causing havoc in the backfield over the last few weeks since he has been active.  When you watch him he is getting off of blocks and making plays in the backfield.  It has been good to see him take advantage of his playing time and I would expect him to be active the rest of the way.  He is just another playmaker for this very talented defensive line that should continue to cause problems for opponents as the season rolls along.  I expect the defensive line to have another great game shutting down the Bills running game and then getting after our old buddy Kyle Orton.

Prediction

I think this game is going to be close for a couple of quarters because the Bills defense is talented enough to slow down the Broncos offense.  Once the Broncos offense hits a rhythm I think they will begin to pull away from the Bills who have struggled offensively this season.  I expect the Broncos defense to continue their dominance from last week.  It would be nice if this defense could put together several great performances in a row and be clicking on all cylinders entering the playoffs.

Final Score- Denver Broncos 34, Buffalo Bills 16

Week 11 Preview: Broncos vs. Rams

Well, the Broncos were able to go to Oakland and take care of business against the Raiders, and this week they find themselves on the road once again, as they prepare for their third straight road game.  They will face off against the St. Louis Rams who enter this game with a 3-6 record.  So this one should be an easy win right? Wrong this St. Louis team is much better than their record indicates, and if they had a serviceable quarterback they would be right in the thick of things in the NFC.  The Rams have a lot of talent, especially on the defensive line where they have three former first round picks.  This game will present a huge challenge for the Broncos offensive line that has struggled this entire season.  The Broncos are obviously worried about the offensive line, because they brought in Richie Incognito this week and considered signing him.  This shows that the Broncos are concerned about the play that they are getting on the interior of offensive line.  They obviously have no worries about Louis Vasquez or Ryan Clady, and Will Montgomery played well last week, but the play of Manny Ramirez and Orlando Franklin has become a liability.  These players are not showing the ability to stop pressure that comes in the A gap (between the guard and center) and this means there is pressure in Manning's face.  While Peyton is great at disguising these weaknesses because he gets rid of the ball in two seconds, it is also a big reason why he had five passes batted down last week.  When there is pressure up the middle it makes it harder for the quarterback to get the ball past the line of scrimmage.  It will be worth watching the interior of the offensive line today to see how they perform against a very talented Rams defensive line.  

Keys to the Game

Denver Broncos

It is hard to talk about the keys to the game without talking about another new running back for the Broncos.  It seems like the Broncos have a new running back almost every week.  In reality they are on their third starting running back of the season.  C.J. Anderson was sensational last week against the Raiders, sparking a stagnant Broncos offense, and beginning the blowout that followed.  His 51 yard catch and run is his highlight play, but what I liked seeing was the way he was running the football.  For a bigger back he shows tremendous quickness in the first ten yards and he shows the ability to fight for yards after contact.  Today is a huge opportunity for Anderson to really seize control of the starting job.  While Ronnie Hillman did look good as the starter he is not really built to be an every down kind of back.  If Anderson is able to keep his production up, look for him to remain the starter, and when Hillman comes back he would become the third down back.  As I stated earlier this game will be very important for the running game.  If the Broncos struggle to run the ball, and protect Manning do not be surprised if the Broncos think long and hard about signing Incognito.  The Broncos should look to run the ball need to establish the run early to slow down the dynamic pass rush of the Rams and make sure that Peyton Manning stays upright in this one.  

Denver Broncos

If Peyton is able to get the time that he needs look for the Broncos to have a big game through the air.  This game will be played on turf which means everyone is just a little bit faster and that could spell trouble for the Rams.  I loved what I saw last week from Julius Thomas.  He finally emerged as more than a red zone threat.  I have been saying for weeks that the Broncos need to target Julius more often in all areas of the field.  That finally happened against the Raiders, and Julius showed what a great weapon he can be when he is involved in the game plan.  Look for the Broncos to continue to use Thomas all over the field, as he presents matchup problems wherever he lines up.  This Broncos offense has continued to improve as the season has rolled along, and I think that they are every bit as good as last seasons record breaking offense.  The emergence of Emmanuel Sanders has added such an explosive dimension to the offense.  His ability to beat one on one press coverage shows why the Broncos were so excited to add him in free agency.  He has also been very impressive when he goes up to fight for a contested catch.  He has great ball skills and consistently wins 50-50 balls, which is all the more impressive given that he is only 5'11".  Look for the Broncos receivers to have another great day against the Rams as long as Peyton is well protected.  

Denver Broncos

What was more impressive last week was the play of the Broncos defense that struggled the week before against the New England Patriots.  The Broncos have shown once again that they have some secret formula for finding linebackers out of nowhere.  Brandon Marshall has been a revelation this season, and his play in the absence of Danny Trevathan has stabilized the Broncos linebacking corp.  He is currently leading the Broncos in tackles, and he has left the Broncos with a tough decision to make whenever Trevathan does make his return.  He has performed so well that the Broncos will most likely look for ways to keep both of these players on the field once Trevathan comes back from injury.  Marshall has been one of the players that has been so key in the Broncos having the #1 ranked running defense in the NFL.  One player that deserves a lot of credit for that is Terrance "Pot Roast" Knighton.  His play in the middle of the defense has been unbelievable this season, and it has allowed linebackers to have a free run to the ball carrier.  If I was John Elway I would make sure I got Pot Roast locked up long term, because he is the reason this run defense is so good.  Malik Jackson is another guy who has been playing great week in and week out, but often does not get the recognition he deserves.  I expect the Broncos defense to shut down the Rams running game early, and get to Shaun Hill early and often in this game.  

Denver Broncos

Another player that has been making plays every week for this defense is rookie corner Bradley Roby.  Last week he got another interception, that set up the C.J. Anderson 51 yard catch and run.  Roby's emergence has allowed the Broncos to move Chris Harris into the slot on obvious passing downs.  Another player that has been very impressive this season is safety Quinton Carter.  Carter is playing for the first time in almost three years, as he missed the previous two seasons with injuries.  This year he has allowed defensive coordinator, Jack Del Rio, to do a lot of creative things with the nickel package (3 corners in the game).  When the Broncos go to the nickel or dime they walk T.J. Ward up and he basically becomes a linebacker, and Carter then comes into the game at safety where he is very good in coverage against opposing tight ends, which is not a strength for Ward.  The play of these two young players has allowed the Broncos to come at the opponents offense with lots of different looks, and it gives them the versatility to deal with any look the offense may throw at them.  I expect the Broncos secondary to lock up the Rams weapons and make life very hard for quarterback Shaun Hill.  

Prediction

I do think that this one is going to be close for awhile because the Rams defense should be able to cause problems for the Broncos offense.  The Broncos may struggle to find a rhythm on offense, especially if the running game has a slow start.  I would not be surprised if this game was close at halftime, but I expect the Broncos to pull away as the game rolls along because the Rams just do not have the offensive personnel to keep up with the Broncos offense.  I think the Broncos defense will clamp down on the Rams offense and make life hard for quarterback Shaun Hill.  In the end the Broncos should come away with a victory in this one.  

Final Score- Denver Broncos 34, St. Louis Rams 13