Week 14: Broncos vs. Bills

Denver Broncos

Looks like we found a kicker who can actually make a 33 yard field goal.  Connor Barth was a breath of fresh air for those of us who were sick of seeing Brandon McManus miss easy field goal.  Now we have a kicker who can make the easy ones.  The only concern that I had was that his kickoffs were landing at about the five yard line on every kickoff and the Chiefs had great field position throughout the game (although they did nothing with it).  The Broncos took care of this problem by re-signing McManus so he can be the kickoff specialist.  I loved this move because kicking off is actually something that McManus did very well.  He has the fourth best touchback percentage in the NFL (75%).  I also loved this move because it came at the expense of Isiah Burse.  Nothing against Burse but he just wasn't getting the job done in the kick return game, and I was glad to see that the Broncos realized that.  He just tried to hard to make the big play every time instead of getting the yards that were there.  There were several times last week where if he had just taken what the coverage gave him he would have had ten to fifteen yards, but instead he tried to get cute and break a big one and wound up getting a couple yards.  He had the worst average punt return in the NFL, so I was glad to see that the Broncos decided to go in a different direction.  I think the Broncos may look to use Wes Welker as the punt returner now.  They had been reluctant to do so but given his reduced role in the offense they may be more willing to risk using him as  punt returner.  Omar Bolden is another player who could see some time as the punt returner.  He has done a good job returning kickoffs over the past two weeks and I wouldn't be surprised if he saw some action as the punt returner.

Denver Broncos

This week the Broncos have to continue to run the football, and it will be a tough task against a very stout Bills defense.  This week it is important to run the ball to slow down the Bills pass rushers.  They lead the league in sacks, and have three players with double digit sacks. The Bills like to get after the quarterback and force him into mistakes.  If there is one weakness to Peyton Manning's game it is that he does not do well under pressure.  The Broncos need to get C.J. Anderson rolling early to make the Bills pass rushers respect the running game.  If they fail to do so the Bills pass rushers will come after Peyton Manning and cause problems for the Broncos offense.  I have loved seeing the Broncos be so committed to the running game over the last several weeks.  If they can keep producing  like they have been this offense will be one of the most dangerous in the NFL.  One concern that I have had in regards to the running game, is the heavy usage that C.J. Anderson has seen over the last several weeks.  The Broncos need to manage his carries more so he is fresh for the postseason.  Look for the Broncos to get Juwan Thompson more carries in this one to make sure Anderson is staying fresh.  I would also expect Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman to get a few carries whenever they come back from injury in the next several weeks, but make no mistake C.J. Anderson is the starter at running back no matter who comes back from injury.

Denver Broncos

In the passing game expect big things from Demaryius Thomas once again.  He has been having a monster season and I think he will continue to have success in this one.  If the Broncos offensive line is able to give Peyton the time he needs look for the Broncos to do a lot of damage through the air.  The weakness of this Bills defense is their secondary, which is hidden because of how great the defensive line is.  Peyton Manning's ability to get rid of the ball quickly should be a big advantage in this game and I expect the Broncos to have a big game through the air.  For some reason this offense is different when they are playing at home.  In six home game the Broncos are averaging just over 35 points per game, as opposed to road game where they are averaging only 24.8 points per game.  Look for the Broncos to get rolling early and score a lot of points in this one.

Denver Broncos

Another good sign from last week was the play of the Denver defense.  They absolutely dominated the Chiefs, and they shut down Jamal Charles which is no easy task.  The biggest change I saw last week was the Broncos willingness to blitz in big moments.  For most of the season the Broncos have been very reluctant to blitz, and have had one of the lowest blitz percentage in the NFL.  Last week that all changed as the Broncos blitzed early and often and they had no problem getting to Alex Smith.  They recorded six sacks in this one and a good number of them were off of a blitz.  One player that I loved blitzing last week was T.J. Ward.  He showed the ability to get to the quarterback and he did a great job of disguising his blitz.  He is a player that I expect to see blitzing more this week as well because that is where he can be really dangerous.  Ward is not a guy that is great in coverage, but he is really good at stuffing the run and getting after the quarterback.

Denver Broncos

Another Bronco that has been really impressive over the past several weeks is Mitch Unrein.  You just can't say enough about a guy who was a huge part of the rotation last year, and this year has been inactive for a good part of the season, and when he got his chance he seized it.  He has been causing havoc in the backfield over the last few weeks since he has been active.  When you watch him he is getting off of blocks and making plays in the backfield.  It has been good to see him take advantage of his playing time and I would expect him to be active the rest of the way.  He is just another playmaker for this very talented defensive line that should continue to cause problems for opponents as the season rolls along.  I expect the defensive line to have another great game shutting down the Bills running game and then getting after our old buddy Kyle Orton.

Prediction

I think this game is going to be close for a couple of quarters because the Bills defense is talented enough to slow down the Broncos offense.  Once the Broncos offense hits a rhythm I think they will begin to pull away from the Bills who have struggled offensively this season.  I expect the Broncos defense to continue their dominance from last week.  It would be nice if this defense could put together several great performances in a row and be clicking on all cylinders entering the playoffs.

Final Score- Denver Broncos 34, Buffalo Bills 16

Week 10: Broncos vs. Raiders

Yikes! Last week did not go as expected for the Broncos, and raised some serious concerns about this Denver Broncos team.  Everyone expected the game to be tough playing at New England but the Broncos were dominated in every single phase of the game.  However, we all need to take a page from Aaron Rodgers book and R-E-L-A-X.  The NFL season is long and there are sure to be moments of disappointment as the season rolls along.  In fact it was just a month or so ago that New England got dismantled by the Kansas City Chiefs and everyone was saying that the Patriots dynasty was done, and Tom Brady was washed up.  A few weeks later and they are suddenly the Super Bowl favorites.  So Broncos fans don't panic after a big loss on the road to a tough opponent.

Denver Broncos

There were some real concerns that surfaced during the Patriots game.  Peyton Manning would have you believe that he stunk, and was the reason for the loss.  However, had Wes Welker caught the pass that became a Brandon Browner interception Peyton had a day that should be good enough to beat anybody.  He made one big mistake in the game, and even Peyton Manning makes mistakes.  To me the real problem that is surfacing with the Broncos is the play of their special teams.  This was a huge factor in the lose to the Patriots.  The punt return for a touchdown was a huge play for the Patriots, and it turned all of the momentum in their favor.  The Broncos never really got back into the game following the return.  The Broncos have actually been pretty solid on kick coverage this season and that was the first return touchdown they have allowed this season.  The biggest area of concern for me is in the kicking game.  Brandon McManus has not demonstrated the ability to make kicks that an NFL kicker has to be able to make.  Most would point to his missed field goal in this game, but I think the most telling play was when the Broncos went for it on 4th down from the Patriots 34 yard line.  Granted, that is a 51 yard field goal but with Matt Prater there would have been no hesitation to kick the field goal at that point in the game.  Peyton Manning was sacked on 4th down and the Patriots quickly drove down the field and scored a touchdown.  If the kicking game does not improve the Broncos may have to explore other options at kicker.  Overall, I felt the Broncos offense actually looked pretty good and they moved the ball well, but they struggled to make big plays in big moments and they also had a couple of critical turnovers.  If the Broncos can clean up the mistakes and convert in big moments they will be just fine going forward.

Denver Broncos

Enough of the struggles of last week, it is time to move past the loss and look at this weeks game against the Oakland Raiders.  Most are expecting this game to be a laugher.  I think the Broncos will win this one but I do think that people are taking the Raiders too lightly.  They are not a very good team but they have shown more fight this season than in seasons past.  They are still winless but they have competed in almost every single game, and they have come close to upsetting some quality teams.  They actually played the New England Patriots very close and almost won that game.  They have also had close games against the San Diego Chargers and the Seattle Seahawks.  It will be important for the Broncos to take the Raiders seriously, and come out ready to play.  I rarely worry about this team coming out flat, as they have Peyton Manning at quarterback.  Speaking of number 18 expect him to have a big game in this one.  He has always played well against the Raiders and that trend should continue this week.  The Raiders defense will be overmatched in this one, and that is going to be obvious in the defensive secondary.  The Raiders do not have the personnel to match up with all of the Broncos weapons.  The Broncos wideouts have been on fire lately and Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders should both have big games again this week.  So far this year they have been the best receiving duo in the NFL bar none.  I would also look for Julius Thomas and Wes Welker to get back on track this week.  People are bailing on Wes Welker way too quickly.  I think that he will still play a very important role for the Broncos this season.  Even if he is just getting a couple catches a game, if those catches are for third down conversions he will be doing his job.  Look for Wes and Julius to get going soon, as the two receivers on the outside will begin to receive extra attention.

Denver Broncos

Another key in this game will be the Broncos running game. Last week the running game struggled to get much of anything going.  This team has to be able to run the ball against 6 man fronts, and last week they were not able to do so.  This week the Broncos will look to re-shuffle their offensive line once again.  With Paul Cornick down with an injury, I expect Orlando Franklin to slide back out to right tackle.  Manny Ramirez should then move from center to left guard, and Will Montgomery will make his first start as a Bronco at center.  It should be very interesting to see how this re-vamped offensive line performs in this one.  So far this season the Broncos have struggled to stop pressure that comes in between the center and either one of the two guards.  It will be worth watching the middle of this line to see if they can fix the problems that have plagued them so far.  If they can create a few holes for Ronnie Hillman I would look for him to get back on track this week.  Last week he struggled running the ball, but he was still able to make a big impact on the game by being a receiver out of the backfield.  As the season moves along I would look for Hillman to continue to be a big part of the passing game.  With his explosive running ability he is a big threat once he has the ball in his hands, and I expect for the Broncos to continue to try to get Hillman the ball in space.

Denver Broncos

Defensively look for the Broncos to get back to being a dominant defensive unit.  Last week they only had one sack but they did generate good pressure most of the game, but Tom Brady got rid of the ball so quickly they were not able to get to him.  One player that I was very impressed with last weekend, and the last several weeks is Malik Jackson.  He has been a guy that has been getting consistent penetration.  Players like Jackson making plays will be very important to the Broncos going forward.  If the Broncos can get enough plays from Jackson and Derek Wolfe in the pass rush they will be able to put constant pressure on opposing quarterbacks.  That will be very important today against a rookie quarterback.  Derek Carr has actually played pretty well this season and has a only been sacked 8 times this year, which is tied for the least in the league (with Peyton Manning).  If the Broncos can find a way to get pressure on this young quarterback they can force him to make mistakes and get some big time turnovers.  If the defense can shut down the run once again look for the pass rushers to make some big plays and cause turnovers.

Denver Broncos

Reports surfaced this week that the Broncos have started contract negotiations with free agent to be Chris Harris.  This is great news for Broncos fans.  Harris does not get the respect around the league that he deserves as he has been one of the best cornerbacks in the league over the last several seasons.  The biggest reason for his greatness is his versatility.  Harris has the ability to play at any corner spot on the field.  He is one of the best corners on the outside, and he is easily the best slot corner in the game once he moves inside to cover the slot receiver.  Locking Harris up long term will ensure the Broncos have one of the best defensive backfields in the NFL for years to come.  Hopefully they can lock him up soon and begin contract negotiations with players like Terrance "Pot Roast" Knighton and Demaryius Thomas.  As I was saying earlier I think the defense will force a couple of turnovers today and I would look for Harris to make a big play today.

Prediction

While I do think the Raiders are better than they are given credit for, they are still no match for a much more talented Denver Broncos team.  I would look for the Broncos to get back on track today in all three phases of the game.  One thing that bears watching today is the ability of Brandon McManus to make tough kicks.  If he misses another field goal or two I would not be surprised if the Broncos brought in another kicker to compete for the starting job.  I expect the Broncos to win this one, and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some more of Brock Osweiler today.

Final Score- Denver Broncos 38, Oakland Raiders 17

AFC West showdown: Broncos vs. Chargers

It’s hard to believe that it is gameday it is but these Thursday night games roll around very quickly especially after a Sunday night game.  The Broncos face yet another tough test as they face off against the division rival San Diego Chargers.  Every division game carries extra importance, but that is especially true when you are facing off against one of the best teams in the league.   A win would put the Broncos in great position to win the division and secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.  The Broncos players have said all week that they will come out ready to play after facing a short week.  They were faced with the exact same situation last year and laid an egg against this same Chargers team. 

Keys to Victory

Denver Broncos

To win this one the Broncos will have to come ready to play as they are facing another great opponent.  It seems like I say that every week but the Broncos really do play tough team after tough team.  While it is hard right now these tough tests could really benefit this team down the road and especially come playoff time.  I think the fact that the Broncos get this game at home should be a big plus for them.  The chargers have also suffered quite a few injuries that will hurt their chances in this game. 

Denver Broncos

One key to this game will be the Broncos run defense.  The chargers will look to control the ball to keep Peyton Manning on the sidelines for as long as possible.  This was the strategy they used last year to beat the Broncos, and they have used this strategy this season to beat teams like Seattle.  The Broncos defense has to stop the run to force the Chargers to make big throws on third and long.  Although stopping the pass could be easier said than done.  Philip Rivers has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this season and is playing at an elite level.  Denver will have it’s hands full with the Chargers offense in this one.  Look for Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware to try to get pressure on Rivers early to try to make him uncomfortable in the pocket. 

The pressure will also be on the Broncos secondary as they will have to try to slow down the pass catching weapons that Philip Rivers has to throw to.  They will have their hands full with players like Keenan Allen, Antonio Gates, and Eddie Royal.  I look for Chris Harris to have another great game.  Last week against the 49ers he was aggressive at the point of attack, coming up and making some pick time stops on quick screens to receivers.  He has been phenomenal coming off of his ACL surgery and is looking like an even better player than the one we saw last year.  Between Harris and Aqib Talib the Broncos have one of the best cornerback duos in the league.  Look for these two players to have a huge game, and expect one of them to make a game changing play in this one. 

Denver Broncos

Offensively the Broncos just have to keep things rolling.  Over the last two weeks the Broncos offense has looked like it has found a rhythm.  The running game has been the most impressive part of the offense so far in the last few games.  Early on I was concerned about the running game but Ronnie Hillman and Juwan Thompson have made some big plays in the running game over the last few weeks.  Hillman has shown great explosiveness to the hole and has shown the kind of burst that you like to see from running backs.  If the offensive line can create decent holes for him against the Chargers he could have some big gains on the ground.  I am looking for Hillman to have a major impact in the passing game this week.  It looks like each week he is getting more comfortable in this offense, and I think he will have a big impact in the passing game. 

Denver Broncos

I am looking for the Broncos passing game to have a big game as the Chargers will be without several key players in the secondary.  Cornerback Brandon Flowers has already been ruled out with a concussion, and rookie corner Jason Verrett is questionable as well.  If Verrett is unable to play in this one, the Chargers secondary could be in for a very long day.  When I watch chargers game Verrett already appears to be their top cover corner, and losing him would be a major blow to the Chargers.  Look for Peyton Manning to test the secondary early and often in this one.  One player who should continue his recent success is Demaryius Thomas.  Thomas has been on an absolute terror lately, and this should be an opportunity for him to continue his recent dominance. 

Prediction

These Thursday night games are very hard to predict as you really can never tell which team is going to come out ready to play.  It is also hard to gameplan when you only have three days to prepare for the upcoming game.  I think that these teams will both show up ready to play in this one, as I am sure they understand the significance in terms of the division standing.  In the end I think the injuries that the Chargers are facing on defense will be to much for them to overcome.  I expect Peyton Manning to have a big day against a weakened Chargers secondary.  However, I expect Philip Rivers and the Chargers to put up quite a fight in this one.  They are a very talented team and will be able to stay with the Broncos for most of the game.  In the end I think the Broncos having this game at home will be the biggest difference. 

Final Score- Broncos 34 Chargers 27