Another week in the NFL and another huge game for the Denver Broncos. It seems like every game so far has been a "must win" for the Broncos and this week they face another tough test against the New England Patriots. The Patriots have been on a roll lately, scoring 51 points last weekend against the Chicago Bears. This game is so important for the Broncos because if they are able to win this game they will be in control of the AFC's #1 seed. If they lose things will become a little more difficult for them although not impossible. As always this game takes on added significance because of the quarterback matchup. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are two of the greatest quarterbacks of all time so anytime they face off against one another, it is a media spectacle. This game also marks the third consecutive year that this matchup has taken place, all of which have been played in Foxborough. The Broncos have not fared too well the last two seasons, but this year could be different and I'll tell you why.
Keys to Victory
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| Denver Broncos- Gabriel Christus |
The biggest key in this game has to be the turnover battle. The Broncos have to avoid beating themselves in this game. In the last two regular season meetings against the Patriots the Broncos have been careless with the ball and it has cost them the game. We all remember last years game where the Broncos managed to squander a 24-0 lead because of two turnovers deep in their own territory. That is how the Patriots beat you. They play good disciplined football and when you make a mistake they are sure to capitalize on it. In this one the Broncos need to make sure that they are not helping the Patriots out with turnovers. If Denver can win the turnover battle I think they will win this game, if they cannot then it could be a different story.
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| Denver Broncos- Gabriel Christus |
One player that could play a big role today for the Broncos is Emmanuel Sanders. If the weather is going to be as bad as they say then the Broncos may not be able to push the ball down the field in the passing game. This could mean that the Broncos run a lot of underneath routes, and bubble screens that give their playmakers the ability to run after the catch. Sanders is one of the most dynamic pass catchers that the Broncos have and he is always fun to watch when he has the ball in his hands. In the last several games the Broncos have run a downfield screen that has been very effective. They ran this play twice last week on third and long situations and I think they could look to run this play on a more consistent basis if the weather is bad. On this play the Broncos set three receivers in a trips formation to the right with one receiver (Demaryius Thomas) set to the left. The three receivers on the right side of the formation come flying off the line of scrimmage which forces the defenders to back off quickly. The receiver on the left of the formation then runs a shallow crossing route, once the ball is thrown the three receivers who are downfield find a man and block. So far this has been an effective play for the Broncos and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Broncos try it a few times.
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| Denver Broncos- Gabriel Christus |
Assuming the weather is as bad as predicted the Broncos will have to rely on the running game, and given recent performance that might not be such a bad thing. Ronnie Hillman has been a fresh breath of air for the Broncos running game. He has transformed the running attack from an area of concern to a real strength of this team. Since taking over as the starter Hillman has consistently shown the ability to hit a hole and get as many yards as he can. He has also shown great quickness. His ability to break big plays has shown up in each game so far and I would not be surprised to see him bust loose for a big play again this week. The last two weeks he has had runs of over thirty yards, and I think that trend will continue this week. The fun thing about Hillman is that once he gets past the second level he has the ability to run away from everybody. Last year against the Patriots the Broncos ran for 280 yards and seemingly had their way with the Patriots defense. I think that this trend will continue against a Patriots defense that is missing it's leading tackler as well as its best pass rusher.
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| Denver Broncos- Gabriel Christus |
As for the Broncos defense they will have their hands full against a Patriots offense that is firing on all cylinders at this point in the season. At the start of this season the Patriots looked out of sync and there were some who said that this was the end of the Patriots dynasty and that Tom Brady was done. Well a few weeks later and those ideas have been solidly laid to rest as the Patriots have been on fire over the last several weeks. What changed? One word: Gronk. The biggest difference for this Patriots offense has been the play of the tight end known only as GRONK. Over the first four games Gronk just did not look like the same dominant player that we are so used to seeing. He ran mostly crossing routes and did not challenge the defense vertically. Things have changed over the last few weeks though and it appears Gronk is healthy and back to terrorizing opponents. He has been running down the seams and dishing out punishment when he makes contact with a defender. So how do the Broncos slow down this Patriots offense? I think that if the Broncos are able to stop the running game and make the Patriots one dimensional Tom Brady could be in for a long day in this one. The Broncos are the #1 run defense so far this season and if they can continue to stop the run they can make life tough for the Patriots today. If the Broncos can stuff the run that means the pass rushers can pin their ears back and get after Tom Brady. This is important because the Patriots offensive line has been suspect at times this season and going against Von Miller and Demarcus Ware is no small task.
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| Denver Broncos- Gabriel Christus |
These two pass rushers have been terrorizing opponents all season long, and they show no signs of slowing down. Von Miller in particular has been practically unstoppable and he now has a sack in six consecutive games which is the best current streak in the NFL. Von Miller is a great pass rusher there is no doubt about that, but one thing that often goes overlooked with Von is just how dominant he is against the running game. If you watch him on running plays he regularly gets into the backfield and at the very least forces the play to go the opposite direction of him. If the Broncos pass rush can get to Brady quickly they should have the ability to either bring him down for a sack or force him to throw it before he is ready. This should provide the defense with opportunities for takeaways and I would look for the Broncos to get at least one interception in this one. Rahim Moore has looked great so far this season and he seems to be seeing the field really well. I was particularly impressed with his interception last week against the Chargers. On the play Moore had deep responsibility and as he saw Malcom Floyd head down the sideline he immediately drifted that way and made a great play on the ball to pick off Phillip Rivers. This shows just how far he has grown as a player. We all remember the play against Baltimore where Moore failed to make the play on the ball. I think he has really developed as a safety and he is a major cog in one of the best secondaries in football.
Prediction
This one is hard to predict because of the weather. If it is cold and windy that takes away the Broncos ability to throw the ball downfield and forces them to dink and dunk a lot more. However, even if the weather is bad I still think the Broncos have the better team. The Broncos have superior talent and as long as they do not make mistakes with the football they should take care of business. I look for Peyton Manning to get his first regular season win in Foxborough as a Bronco in this one.
Final Score- Denver Broncos 24, New England Patriots 17
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