Sunday, December 14, 2014

Week 15: Broncos vs. Chargers

Denver Broncos
Another week and another tough test for the Denver Broncos.  This week the Broncos will be playing for their fourth consecutive AFC West title.  If the Broncos are able to snag a win today they will set themselves up nicely for the playoffs and inch closer to a first round bye although they will need help to secure the number one overall seed for the third season in a row.  This week look for the Broncos to get their passing attack back on track.  For those who say Peyton Manning is done, this should be evidence that he is far from done.  I think the Broncos will get the passing game rolling today and the nice weather should be a great aid to Peyton Manning.  Now that doesn't mean that the Broncos will stop running the ball.  I think that they are still going to put an emphasis on the running game, but I think their goal in this one should be to be more efficient both running and passing the ball.  Last week the Broncos were not very efficient at either, and I expect them to work to move the ball in a more efficient manner.

Denver Broncos
One positive from last week was the running game in the red zone.  If C.J. Anderson can continue to be a threat down inside the ten yard line this offense will be tough to beat when they get down near the goal line.  The running game is very important for the Broncos going forward, because it will keep defenses honest.  Having a running game in the playoffs will make a huge difference for the Broncos because they will be able to rely less on Peyton Manning.  I love the way this team is playing football right now because they can win with a subpar game from Peyton Manning.  During the last two postseasons they have relied way to heavily on Manning and if he does not play a perfect game they struggle.  Over the last few weeks the Broncos have proven that they can win football games even when Manning is not in top form.  Running the ball and defense will be the key for the Broncos going forward, and the occasional pass from #18 sure won't hurt either.

Denver Broncos
Speaking of defense, how good have they been over the last few weeks?  The defense is finally clicking on all cylinders and they have been extremely impressive over the last several weeks.  If they can continue to play at such a high level the Broncos are going to be a very tough team to beat going forward.  One player that has finally been rewarded for his stellar play is Chris Harris.  He got a five year contract extension this week and no player is more deserving of a pay raise.  He is one of the best corners in the league and it is good that he is finally paid like a top flight corner.  It seems like every single week he is making a huge play in the football game.  Last week he made a great play near the end zone that helped seal the Broncos victory.  I expect him to make another big play this week against Philip Rivers.  Rivers is a guy that Harris has made big plays against in the past and I think we could see another big play this week.

Denver Broncos
Another player on the defensive side of the ball that has been playing at a high level lately is Malik Jackson.  It seems like he does not get the credit he deserves because guys like Von Miller and Demarcus Ware get most of the accolades along the defensive line, and deservedly so.  However, if you watch the play along the defensive line Jackson is consistently making plays wether it is stopping the running game or getting after the quarterback.  He has been a big reason for the defensive improvements lately because he adds another pass rushing threat to this defense.  I expect him to make some big plays today because he often lines up at defensive tackle.  This should give him a great opportunity to rush the passer because San Diego is very weak in the middle of the offensive line, and more specifically at the center position.  They have lost three centers for the season and it has been a real problem spot for them throughout the season.  Look for Jackson and others to look to create pressure up the middle and get right in the face of Philip Rivers.

Denver Broncos
Brandon Marshall is another Bronco defender that deserves a ton of credit for the great play of the defense over the last several weeks.  He has been a huge difference maker for the Broncos, and has helped lessen the blow of losing Danny Trevethan.  Trevethan is expected to return this week and that will give defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio lots of options at the linebacker position.  It gives him two guys that are tackling machines, and have the ability to make plays in coverage as well.  One thing that I would look for the defense to do is match up one of these guys on Antonio Gates on obvious passing downs.  Tight ends have had a field day against the Broncos defense and I think they will try a few different things today against Gates to try to slow him down.

Prediction

I think this game is going to be close and it will be a back and forth contest.  I think the winner will be decided by turnovers.  Taking care of the football will be key in this game as the teams are fairly evenly matched.  The Broncos defense has been great lately at taking the ball away, but that has been slightly negated by the offense not taking care of the football.  Look for Peyton Manning to take better care of the ball today.   Ultimately I think the Broncos defense will be the difference in this one.  They have been playing great lately, and I think that will continue today.  Look for a turnover or two that will be the deciding factor in this game.

Final Score- Denver Broncos 27, San Diego 21

Sunday, December 7, 2014

Week 14: Broncos vs. Bills

Denver Broncos
Looks like we found a kicker who can actually make a 33 yard field goal.  Connor Barth was a breath of fresh air for those of us who were sick of seeing Brandon McManus miss easy field goal.  Now we have a kicker who can make the easy ones.  The only concern that I had was that his kickoffs were landing at about the five yard line on every kickoff and the Chiefs had great field position throughout the game (although they did nothing with it).  The Broncos took care of this problem by re-signing McManus so he can be the kickoff specialist.  I loved this move because kicking off is actually something that McManus did very well.  He has the fourth best touchback percentage in the NFL (75%).  I also loved this move because it came at the expense of Isiah Burse.  Nothing against Burse but he just wasn't getting the job done in the kick return game, and I was glad to see that the Broncos realized that.  He just tried to hard to make the big play every time instead of getting the yards that were there.  There were several times last week where if he had just taken what the coverage gave him he would have had ten to fifteen yards, but instead he tried to get cute and break a big one and wound up getting a couple yards.  He had the worst average punt return in the NFL, so I was glad to see that the Broncos decided to go in a different direction.  I think the Broncos may look to use Wes Welker as the punt returner now.  They had been reluctant to do so but given his reduced role in the offense they may be more willing to risk using him as  punt returner.  Omar Bolden is another player who could see some time as the punt returner.  He has done a good job returning kickoffs over the past two weeks and I wouldn't be surprised if he saw some action as the punt returner.

Denver Broncos
This week the Broncos have to continue to run the football, and it will be a tough task against a very stout Bills defense.  This week it is important to run the ball to slow down the Bills pass rushers.  They lead the league in sacks, and have three players with double digit sacks. The Bills like to get after the quarterback and force him into mistakes.  If there is one weakness to Peyton Manning's game it is that he does not do well under pressure.  The Broncos need to get C.J. Anderson rolling early to make the Bills pass rushers respect the running game.  If they fail to do so the Bills pass rushers will come after Peyton Manning and cause problems for the Broncos offense.  I have loved seeing the Broncos be so committed to the running game over the last several weeks.  If they can keep producing  like they have been this offense will be one of the most dangerous in the NFL.  One concern that I have had in regards to the running game, is the heavy usage that C.J. Anderson has seen over the last several weeks.  The Broncos need to manage his carries more so he is fresh for the postseason.  Look for the Broncos to get Juwan Thompson more carries in this one to make sure Anderson is staying fresh.  I would also expect Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman to get a few carries whenever they come back from injury in the next several weeks, but make no mistake C.J. Anderson is the starter at running back no matter who comes back from injury.

Denver Broncos
In the passing game expect big things from Demaryius Thomas once again.  He has been having a monster season and I think he will continue to have success in this one.  If the Broncos offensive line is able to give Peyton the time he needs look for the Broncos to do a lot of damage through the air.  The weakness of this Bills defense is their secondary, which is hidden because of how great the defensive line is.  Peyton Manning's ability to get rid of the ball quickly should be a big advantage in this game and I expect the Broncos to have a big game through the air.  For some reason this offense is different when they are playing at home.  In six home game the Broncos are averaging just over 35 points per game, as opposed to road game where they are averaging only 24.8 points per game.  Look for the Broncos to get rolling early and score a lot of points in this one.

Denver Broncos
Another good sign from last week was the play of the Denver defense.  They absolutely dominated the Chiefs, and they shut down Jamal Charles which is no easy task.  The biggest change I saw last week was the Broncos willingness to blitz in big moments.  For most of the season the Broncos have been very reluctant to blitz, and have had one of the lowest blitz percentage in the NFL.  Last week that all changed as the Broncos blitzed early and often and they had no problem getting to Alex Smith.  They recorded six sacks in this one and a good number of them were off of a blitz.  One player that I loved blitzing last week was T.J. Ward.  He showed the ability to get to the quarterback and he did a great job of disguising his blitz.  He is a player that I expect to see blitzing more this week as well because that is where he can be really dangerous.  Ward is not a guy that is great in coverage, but he is really good at stuffing the run and getting after the quarterback.

Denver Broncos
Another Bronco that has been really impressive over the past several weeks is Mitch Unrein.  You just can't say enough about a guy who was a huge part of the rotation last year, and this year has been inactive for a good part of the season, and when he got his chance he seized it.  He has been causing havoc in the backfield over the last few weeks since he has been active.  When you watch him he is getting off of blocks and making plays in the backfield.  It has been good to see him take advantage of his playing time and I would expect him to be active the rest of the way.  He is just another playmaker for this very talented defensive line that should continue to cause problems for opponents as the season rolls along.  I expect the defensive line to have another great game shutting down the Bills running game and then getting after our old buddy Kyle Orton.

Prediction

I think this game is going to be close for a couple of quarters because the Bills defense is talented enough to slow down the Broncos offense.  Once the Broncos offense hits a rhythm I think they will begin to pull away from the Bills who have struggled offensively this season.  I expect the Broncos defense to continue their dominance from last week.  It would be nice if this defense could put together several great performances in a row and be clicking on all cylinders entering the playoffs.

Final Score- Denver Broncos 34, Buffalo Bills 16