Week 7: Broncos vs. 49ers
The pursuit of 509 is nearing the end for Peyton Manning. With three more touchdown passes Peyton Manning will pass Brett Farve for the most touchdown passes in league history. The atmosphere in the stadium should be electric for this one as the crowd anticipates history being made. However, this game is about more than Peyton Manning getting his record. The Broncos need to get a win on Sunday as they are entering one of the most difficult stretches of their schedule. In the next three weeks the Broncos face three playoff teams from last year, and most likely three teams that will be playoff teams this year as well. If the Broncos can get a win on Sunday, they will set themselves up nicely over the next three weeks. The schedule thus far has not been easy, as the Broncos will face teams that won ten games or more in 7 of their first 8 games. The Broncos need to win on Sunday and protect home field advantage.
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| Denver Broncos |
Keys to Victory
For the Broncos to win they are going to need to exploit the weaknesses of the 49ers defense. This defense is one of the best in the NFL but there are areas of the field where they can be beat. Most notably in the middle of the field where the 49ers will be without All Pro middle linebackers NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis. This is a huge loss for the 49ers as these two players shut down the run and also patrol the middle against the passing game. The Denver Broncos should look for Julius Thomas early and often. He is a mismatch even against some of the best players in the game, and when he is being checked by an untested rookie, that spells trouble for the defense. Julius should continue his torrid 2014 pace and add to his touchdown total on Sunday night. I think he will make more of an impact running down the seams in this game. So far he has been more of a red zone threat, but I expect the Broncos to let him run down the middle of the field and look for him to make some big plays in this game. Another receiver that should make a big impact in this game is Emmanuel Sanders. He has been dynamic up to this point but has yet to score in a Denver Broncos uniform. I think that this is the game where he changes that. I think the Broncos will challenge the 49ers deep and Sanders is the player that has the ability to take the top off of the defense. Look for Peyton Manning to look his way early to stretch the defense, and open up underneath routes for players like Wes Welker.
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| Denver Broncos |
The Broncos should also look to test the front seven of the 49ers with the running game. Not having two of the best linebackers in the game is going to affect any team and the Broncos need to at least try to run against the 49ers. Last week the team was able to effectively run the ball and have good balance in the game. Are the Broncos going to be a run first team? No, but that is not how this team is built anyway. This team was built to air the ball out, but having the ability to run the ball against five man fronts will be very important to the Broncos going forward. I thought Ronnie Hillman was effective last week as he showed a good burst to and through the hole. The Broncos need to work at getting him going early to keep the defense honest. I would also look for the Broncos to look for Hillman in the running game as he is very good with the ball in his hands after his catch. If the Broncos are able to show that they can run the ball when challenged to do so by the 49ers they should maintain a good offensive rhythm. I think Denver's offense will struggle at times in this game, but the loss of Bowman and Willis might be too much for the the San Francisco defense to overcome.
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| Denver Broncos |
Defensively Denver is going to have it's hands full with Colin Kaepernick and all of the weapons on the 49ers offense. Kaepernick is one of the most dynamic athletes in the NFL and he just happens to play at the most important position in the NFL. He is a rare physical specimen who can beat a defense running or throwing the ball. He is the key to slowing down this offense. The Denver pass rush has to get to Kaepernick quickly and make sure that he is not able to escape the pocket to make big plays with his feet. The edge rushers for the Broncos need to make sure that they do not get to far up the field and create running lanes for Kaepernick to take advantage of. If the Broncos can keep him in the pocket then they can force him to make big throws. With Aqib Talib and Chris Harris on the outside the Broncos should be able to lock down the receivers of the 49ers. The way to beat Kaepernick is to force him to use his arm to beat you. Now he does have a cannon of an arm he is not a quarterback who is going to move through his progressions until he finds an open receiver. He typically makes two reads and if he doesn't have an open receiver he will take off. He usually has one deep route and one underneath route that he reads. If the Broncos can keep him in the pocket and take away his two options he will be in a lot of trouble.
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| Denver Broncos |
If the defense is able to do that then they will be able to force Kaepernick into mistakes. When he doesn't have an open receiver in his first two reads and he can't run he tends to make bad decisions with the football. He will try to force throws and make something out of nothing. The Broncos have to jump on these mistakes and make sure they take the ball away when they are given the opportunity. Look for Aqib Talib to make a play or two in this game as he has been close to an interception in almost every game. Last week he sealed the game with a pick six and it wouldn't be surprising to see him make another big play in this one.
Ultimately I expect this to be a hard fought game that is close throughout. The 49ers will be one of the best teams the Broncos will face all year and they should be a very good test for the Broncos. In the end I think the loss of Willis for the game will be a huge blow to the 49ers defense. It will allow the Broncos to make enough plays to win the game. This should be a huge statement win for the Broncos as a team, and a historic day for quarterback Peyton Manning.
Prediction
Denver Broncos 27, San Francisco 49ers 24
Peyton Manning 509 touchdowns (record breaking touchdown caught by Demaryius Thomas)
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